Oscars 2021: Who Will and Should win?
Words by Liam Horgan.
This year’s Oscars are beginning to take shape. After some historic nominations and some surprising snubs, the ceremony is finally upon us. This year, the Oscars must contend with two big after-effects; keeping the momentum of the historic wins from last year as well as adjusting to the havoc that Covid-19 has caused within the global film industry. Without further ado, I’m going to go through each category, to show who is will likely win, along with who I think should win. As always, awards can be hard to predict but that’s the fun of it, so let’s get going.
Remember Avatar? Yeah me neither.
Best Visual Effects
Let's start with Best Visual Effects. In recent years, this category has had some impressive nominees and winners. Last year, the winner was 1917. In my opinion there’s only one winner here and that’s Tenet. As flawed as Nolan’s film was, the effects were simply stunning. Combining practical stunts with flawless visual effects, Nolan’s film deserves the win. While Midnight Sky did win the VFX award from the Visual Effects Society, Tenet won the BAFTA giving it the momentum.
Who will win?: Tenet
Who should win?: Tenet
“What a sad little life Best Original Song category.”
Best Original Song
I’ve already spoken about this at length, therefore I’m refusing to comment.
Soul has some bops now to be fair.
Best Original Score
Like some of the other technical categories, there’s a clear front runner here. Batiste, Renor and Ross are walking away with this award. Soul’s score is beautiful and deserving of the award, though it would not be an unwelcome sight if Minari’s Mosseri stole the show last minute.
Who will win?: Soul
Who should win?: Soul
If Tenet was nominated I would have rioted.
Best Sound
This category used to be two seperate ones. Sound editing and mixing are two very distinct things, however to minimize confusion amongst members, the Academy combined the two. Again like many other categories, the clear winner here is Sound of Metal (deservedly too).
Who will win?: Sound of Metal
Who should win?: Sound of Metal
Remember when Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them won this? Yeah me neither.
Best Costume Design
Like VFX, Costume tends to blend blockbuster and lesser seen films together, resulting in some interesting nominees. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the favourite to take the award, although Byrne’s work in Emma deserves more recognition.
Who will win? Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Who should win? Emma.
Remember when Suicide Squad won this (lol)?
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Makeup and Hairstyling has always caused some controversy in its winners. In 2017, Suicide Squad won over Star Trek: Beyond, causing some controversy online. However both films had a value for practical effects (to this day, Suicide Squad’s Killer Croc is an amazing achievement in VFX makeup). This year the favourite is Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, however, the make-up artistry on display in Pinocchio is a huge achievement in VFX makeup design. The lead actor Federico Ielapi literally looks carved out of wood in Garrone’s film, making it very deserving of the award.
Who will win?: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Who should win?: Pinnochio
When will Grand Designs win an Oscar? When?
Best Production Design
Production design is always a fun category. This year however, there’s no competition. While both Ma Rainey and News of the World faithfully recreated their period settings, Mank is clearly walking away with the award. Hearst’s castle is one of the major setpieces in the film and the team’s work on it flourishes in these scenes. However, it’s Peter Francis and Cathy Featherstone’s work on The Father that deserves the win here. Subtle and minimal in scope, the work done on the different locations to mirror Anthony’s flat truly pays off. It’s a monumental achievement in design and deserves to be celebrated.
Who will win?: Mank
Who should win?: The Father
A good short is less then 15 minutes, and that’s on God.
Best Live-Action Short Film
The Oscar shorts can sometimes be one of its most inaccessible categories. Due to a lack of accessibility, many people don’t get to see the majority of the shorts nominated. Thankfully this year you can watch all the shorts in their glory on Shortstv.
Having watched all the shorts, It’s clear to me that the film that should win is The Present. A simplistic, minimal film which beautifully highlights the discrimination and hardship faced by Palestinians in Israel, it highlights a people’s struggle without ever descending into overt messaging or unnecessary shock tactics. Ironically the favourite for this category is the Oscar Isaacs-starring The Letter Room. However I found this to be the weakest of the nominees, relying less on intelligent storytelling and more on the star power of the lead actor.
Who will win? The Letter Room.
Who should win? The Present.
Fun fact: In 2017, Dear Basketball won making Kobe Bryant & Glen Keane Oscar winners.
Best Animated Short Film
Of all the nominees in this category, the clear front runner is If Anything Happens I Love You. The heartbreaking short follows two grieving parents after the loss of their daughter. Combining wonderful hand drawn animation with subtle storytelling, no doubt this will be the winner on the night. However, Pixar’s charming Burrow and the equally mind bending Opera are both worth a mention.
Who will win? If Anything Happens I Love You
Who should win? If Anything Happens I Love You
If Wolfwalkers doesn’t win I will release 10,000 wolves into the Academy Museum.
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Animated feature is a two horse race (and even then it’s not close). Soul and Wolfwalkers are the only worthy nominees here. However, the Pixar dominant category is unlikely to yield to Cartoon Saloon’s wonderful Wolfwalkers. Soul is a return to form for Pixar, and will win on the day. However, personally Wolfwalkers is really the film that should win here. Perhaps Cartoon Saloon’s best film to date, the Irish folklore film deserves to win for its stunning 2d animation, its uplifting story and its innovative style.
Who will win? Soul
Who should win? Wolfwalkers
I kind of hope Borat wins for the sheer chaos tbh.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Let’s clear one thing up, Borat (I refuse to type the name all out) is nominated here because Oscar rules state that any sequel to a franchise belongs here because it is based on a previous body of work ie. the first film (I don’t really think that makes sense in some cases but I’m not the Academy, so there’s not much that can be done). Anyhow, on Oscar night, Nomadland will win this award, as it’s hard to argue why it shouldn’t. Zhao’s only real competition here is Zeller and Hampton’s script for The Father. However, it’s Zhao’s contemplative work on Nomadland that deserves the award.
Who will win?: Nomadland
Who should win?: Nomadland
Remember when Green Book won this? … Actually it’s better we forget that.
Best Original Screenplay
Original screenplay is a tough category this year. Naturally, Sorkin gets his token nomination, but he is unlikely to win. The front runner is Fennell for her feminist revenge thriller Promising Young Woman. Personally, it’s hard to think of a better film than Minari. Lee Isaac Chung’s beautiful family drama is more than deserving of the award.
Who will win? Promising Young Woman
Who should win? Minari
Fun fact: Director Charles Guggenheim won this award three times (that’s as many Oscars as Meryl Streep).
Best Documentary Short Subject
This year, the frontrunners are Do Not Split, which focuses on the Hong Kong protests between 2019 and 2020, and A Love Song for Latatsha, a portrait of Latasha Harlins, a young black girl who was shot and killed by a convenience store owner in 1991. Both films deal with their subject matters with equal respect and honesty. Currently the favourite is A Love Song for Latatsha, however it’s hard not to be enveloped by the immersive reality of Do Not Split.
Who will win? A Love Song for Latatsha
Who should win? Do Not Split
Did the Octopus view him as a student? Did they use zoom like everyone else? Many questions.
Best Documentary Feature
The documentary category this year has some really great nominees. Arguably, Collective, Time and Crip Camp were worthy enough of Best Picture nominations. The current favourite is Netflix’s My Octopus Teacher. However, it can’t compare to the emotional depth of Time and the ferocity of Collective.
Who will win?: My Octopus Teacher
Who should win?: Collective OR Time
Remember when Bohemian Rhapsody won this?
Best Film Editing
In recent years, the best editing category has always gone to the most editing. This was rightfully criticised when Bohemian Rhapsody won the award in 2019. For a breakdown of why that was such an issue, check out this delightful video:
This year the favourite is Sound of Metal. Nielsen’s editing is masterful; blending sound design and editing to bring it to its zenith. Trial of the Chicago 7 recently won at this year's ACE (American Cinema Editors) Eddie awards, so personally I think the curse of “most editing” could still occur with the Trial of the Chicago 7 winning on the night.
Who will win?: Trial of the Chicago 7
Who should win?: Sound of Metal
Fun fact: In 2019, the Academy failed to nominate South Korean film Burning because then the International film category would then have been too powerful.
Best International Feature Film
No other film is winning this category apart from Another Round. The Mads Mikkelssan starring film has won nearly every award it’s been nominated for and don’t expect the Oscars to go any differently. However, Collective, Alexander Nanau’s hard hitting documentary on the corruption within Romania’s health industry and government is one of the best films nominated at this year's Oscars and rightfully deserves the award.
Who will win? Another Round.
Who should win? Collective.
Fun fact: I liked when Brad Pitt won.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Best Supporting Actor is going to Daniel Kaluuya, and it should.
The inclusion of Stanfield is unlikely to knock Kaluuya’s momentum and nor should it. Stanfield’s surprise inclusion was as much a surprise to us as the actor himself. Kaluuya is the worthy nominee giving a show stopping performance as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah.
Who will win?: Daniel Kaluuya
Who should win?: Daniel Kaluuya.
Fun fact: Glenn Close has also been nominated for a Razzie for the same role, this has never happened before
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Best Supporting Actress was a confusing race for the first half of the awards season. However, it's clear now that Yuh-jung Youn is walking home with that Oscar. Youn’s electric performance as Grandma Soonja in Minari deserves the acclaim and the win. However don’t be surprised if Maria Bakalova steals it on the night.
Who will win?: Yuh-jung Youn
Who should win?: Yuh-jung Youn
Hey, remember when they gave this to Casey Affleck?
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Chadwick Boseman has been the front runner in this category for some time. Having swept up the majority of awards for his performance of Levee Green in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Boseman’s momentum is unlikely to change. Although Boseman certainly gives an Oscar worthy performance, his posthumous nomination is less for this performance and more an acknowledgment of a genre-spanning cinematic career. Make no mistake, Boseman will win for his performance. Personally, with the exception of Gary Oldman, I would be happy with any of the other performers walking away with the statue. It’s refreshing to see a year of nominees who have given restrained, personal performances over showy Oscar baity roles.
Who will win?: Chadwick Boseman
Who should win?: Anyone but Oldman.
Fun fact: I liked when Olivia Colman won.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
The Best Actress race has become one of the most unpredictable categories this year. With the exception of Vanessa Kirby, all the other nominees have won a major award for their role (Davis won the SAG, McDormand the BAFTA, Day the Globes and Mulligan the Critic’s Choice). Currently the race is between Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis.
Who will win? Carey Mulligan
Who should win? Frances McDormand.
Cinnamomtopography.
Best Cinematography
Again, a one horse race emerges. Joshua James Richards will win on the night, and rightly so. It’s hard to think of a better looking film to come out of last year. While Judas and the Black Messiah’s Sean Bobbitt would not be an unwelcome winner on the night, it’s hard to argue with the beauty of Nomadland.
Who will win?: Nomadland
Who should win?: Nomadland
Remember when they gave this to Roman Polanski even though he couldn’t collect it in person because he’s wanted in the USA for rape? Because the Academy doesn’t want you to.
Best Director
Chloé Zhao is the frontrunner for this award, having swept the board across the awards circuit. Her likely win at the Oscars will be a much welcomed success and achievement. Regarding the work itself, Nomadland is a poignant ode to those that are lost and a contemplative look at society as a whole. It’ll be hard to see a surprise here on the night.
Who will win?: Chloé Zhao
Who should win?: Chloé Zhao
Remember when Green Book….. you know what never mind.
Best Picture
It’s virtually impossible for there to be any other winner than Nomadland. Zhao’s film is undoubtedly the front runner and deservedly so. This year's nominees are smaller in scope, smaller in budgets (the most expensive nominee is Trial with a budget of $35 million) and quieter affairs than other years. An eclectic group of stories, it’s hard to pick a winner from some of the great films selected. Nomadland will win on the night but the majority of films winning here would not be a huge upset (except for Mank and Trial).
Who will win?: Nomadland
Who should win?: Nomadland
Regardless of who wins on the night, this year’s Oscars will stand as a curious year in the Academy’s history. Following last year’s historic ceremony, this year deals with the fallout of the pandemic and showcases films that may not have been nominated in any other year. Coupled with the fact that over half of the nominees have yet to be released worldwide, this year will indeed stand out in Oscars history, particularly as the year they failed to nominate Ja Ja Ding Dong for Best Orginal Song. A travesty honestly.
